How likely you think it is

What one contract costs now

Optional — needed for a stake

Enter a probability and a contract price to see the Kelly fraction. Add a bankroll and it will also say what that fraction comes to.

Your bankroll stays in this page. It is not sent anywhere, not stored, and not attached to anyone — there is no account here and nothing to sign into. Enter the capital you have set aside for this kind of trade, never your net worth: sizing against a bigger number inflates every stake by the same multiple.

Quantreno is not a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, or exchange. The information and tools provided do not constitute financial advice. Trading prediction markets and stocks involves risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions. By using this service, you acknowledge that you understand and accept these risks.

Kelly criterion calculator by Quantreno