How accurate are Kalshi's prices?

Kalshi is a prediction-market exchange: people buy and sell contracts on whether something will happen. This page measures the exchange — how often the prices its traders set turned out to match what actually happened. It is not a record of Quantreno's own trades, calls, or returns, and no figure on it belongs to us.

What the numbers mean

A contract
An agreement that pays one dollar if the thing happens and nothing if it does not. So its price is really a probability wearing a dollar sign: a contract changing hands at thirty cents is the market saying "this happens about thirty percent of the time".
Settlement
When the answer is known, the exchange closes the market and pays out — one dollar to the side that was right. That payout is what we compare the earlier price against.
The boundary
Each market is measured at one declared moment: the last daily book close before the market closed — midnight Eastern on the venue's own daily chart. The price at that moment is the mark; nothing later is ever substituted for it. Fixing one moment in advance is what stops a record like this from flattering itself, because there is no second price to choose from afterwards.
Calibration
Group every settled market by what it cost at that moment, then ask how often each group actually happened. A well-calibrated market priced at thirty cents happens about thirty percent of the time. Being calibrated is not the same as being confident — it only means the prices meant what they said.

What this covers, and what it does not

Kalshi lists far more markets than any honest record could measure, most of them sports and entertainment. This page covers a fixed, published list of its economic series — small enough to check, and the ones a reader is most likely to care about. Widening the list is a change to this page, announced here.

  • Federal funds rate after each Fed meeting
  • Fed meeting decisions
  • Consumer Price Index
  • Inflation, year over year
  • Core Consumer Price Index
  • Core PCE inflation
  • Monthly jobs report
  • Unemployment rate
  • US GDP growth
  • US average gas price

Every percentage above is printed beside the number of settled markets it came from, and a price range holding fewer than 20 of them prints no percentage at all. Markets we could not read at the boundary are named as gaps rather than dropped quietly. Nothing here is advice, and a market being well calibrated in the past says nothing about what any particular contract is worth today.