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Guides for the disciplined retail trader — how event markets actually work, how professionals size and structure the same trades, and where the edges really are. Educational, never advisory.
Kalshi arbitrage: how it works — and its limits
The three real forms of arbitrage on an event exchange, the fee and legging math that shrinks them, and the honest version of the trade.
Read itIs Kalshi legit? A sober look at the regulated prediction market
The regulatory facts, the risks regulation doesn't remove, and the ten-minute checks worth doing yourself.
Read itHow does Kalshi work? Event contracts, explained
Pricing, the order book, settlement, and fees — the whole mechanism, with one trade walked from open to payout.
Read itThe Kelly criterion: sizing positions by edge, not feel
The formula, a worked event-contract example, why practitioners trade fractional Kelly, and the failure modes that matter.
Read itKalshi trading strategies that actually make sense
Where the edge really comes from on an event exchange, what reliably loses, and the honest answer on Kalshi trading bots.
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