Quantreno Research
Consumer KPIs
MCD August ladder still slow to price a -4.5% YoY visit slide; books too thin to monetize the read — stay cautious.
as of Sat 10:30 AM UTC · 5d agoStale· re-researched Sat after automated verification held the prior view· next: August foot-traffic ladder settlement — Costco (KXCOSTFT) — Mon 2:29 AM UTC (confirmed)What's moving: the only life in the August foot-traffic ladders (settle ~Sep 7) is Costco T95, last 69¢ after a +9pp move on 3 contracts. Everything else is orphaned — 24h volume 0–3, spreads as wide as 5/70; the one tight strike is MCD T103 at 9/10¢. Only McDonald's (KXMCDFT) and Costco (KXCOSTFT) August ladders are open; no Walmart or Domino's markets sit in-window despite matching series. Zero X chatter on any of it.
The nowcast: Placer.ai data (per TechTimes, Aug 4) had McDonald's US visits down 4.5% YoY in Q2 2026 — underperforming an already weak QSR benchmark and coinciding with a US leadership change, while Chipotle grew ~4.7%. On the other side, Business Insider and Fortune coverage of Placer.ai shows Costco benefiting from executive-hours changes and accelerating gas-station visits, and Chain Store Age reports Walmart visitation running strong versus Target.
Variant perception: the MCD ladder (T99 last 81¢, T102 last 15¢, centering ~101–103) looks slow to price the visit deterioration the nowcast data already shows; Costco's ladder center of ~94–95 looks roughly fair. The honest caveat: with no two-sided depth, the edge is directional but effectively untradeable at these quotes.
Watching: whether WMT/DPZ September ladders list, and whether volume returns after the Sep 7 settlement.
Sources
- Web · Walmart, Target, Costco & Superstore Space 2023 Recap – Placer.ai Blog · true as of Apr 8, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC · 1y ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · Costco Sees Higher Traffic From New Executive Member Shopping Hours - Business Insider · true as of Sep 24, 2025, 3:06 PM UTC · 11mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · Gas over $4 looks like tipping point as Walmart customers don't fill tanks, fast food loses cheapest diners | Fortune · true as of Jun 7, 12:00 AM UTC · 2mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Kalshi · 12 open Kalshi market(s) — KXCOSTFT-26SEP07-T95 yes 5/70¢ · KXMCDFT-26SEP07-T99 yes 0/100¢ · KXMCDFT-26SEP07-T98 yes 0/100¢ · true as of Sat 10:30 AM UTC · 5d ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Kalshi · 11 open Kalshi market(s) — KXCOSTFT-26SEP07-T95 yes 5/70¢ · KXCOSTFT-26SEP07-T99 yes 7/73¢ · KXCOSTFT-26SEP07-T98 yes 6/73¢ · true as of Sat 10:30 AM UTC · 5d ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · JLL: Grocery-anchored centers notch the highest visitation rates - Chain Store Age · true as of Feb 27, 11:18 AM UTC · 6mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · Placer.ai: Shopping center visits stay hot in July - Chain Store Age · true as of Aug 12, 5:03 PM UTC · 22d ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · Placer.ai: Walmart traffic is riding high while Target struggles - Chain Store Age · true as of Mar 3, 8:00 AM UTC · 6mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:30 AM
- Web · McDonald's US Traffic Sinks 4.5%, Triggering Leadership Change at Largest Unit · true as of Aug 4, 2:08 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
- Web · McDonald's Installs New U.S. President as Rising Checks Mask Falling Traffic · true as of Aug 4, 1:17 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
- Web · The State of Restaurant Traffic as 2026 Gets Underway - QSR Magazine · true as of Jan 16, 5:33 PM UTC · 7mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
- Web · The Salad and Go bankruptcy is being described as ... · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
- Web · সজীব · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
- Web · সজীব · fetched Aug 29, 10:31 AM
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