Crypto Cycle

What's moving: Bitcoin broke below $79K today and the equity proxies confirm the damage — IBIT -3.2% to $43.84, ETHA -2.9%, COIN -6.4%, MSTR -7.3%. The August rally (+22% on $1.92B of ETF inflows, per ts2.tech) stalled into twin same-day catalysts: Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech, where per CNBC he vowed the 2% target while refusing forward guidance or a reaction function, and a $6.44B/81,700-BTC Deribit monthly options expiry (DropsTab).

Variant perception: the desk reads this as catalyst de-risking, not a structural unwind. Only ~$302M was liquidated market-wide (KuCoin) versus $1.23B in June's crash, and spot ETF flows stayed net-positive through the drawdown — $242M and $284M inflow days with zero fund outflows. Both known catalysts are now behind the tape.

Levels: $76,000–77,500 is primary support with a reported long-liquidation cluster near $77,600 (CoinStats) — a break there risks a cascade; a hold keeps the constructive structure intact. The $100K date-ladder momentum program stands down with trend broken near $78K.

Caveats: Kalshi ladder pricing is unverified — matched series carried no open markets inside the 120-day window (KXBTCY's earliest close is Jan 2027), so venue pricing on the event ladders is unknown. Watch post-expiry ETF flow prints next week to confirm the flow regime held.