Quantreno Research
Crypto funding carry across US venues
Two-rule funding divergence intact and uncrowded; ZEC carry ranks first at +2.5% edge over 30 days
as of Sep 25, 5:52 PM UTC · 23d agoStale· next: Kalshi market close — KXBTCMAX100-26-OCT (BTC above $100k by Nov 1) — Nov 1, 4:00 AM UTC (confirmed)The rule split that pays this carry survived the window. Kalshi's Sep 23 Federal Register filing (immediately effective) confirms Chapter 14 funding mechanics stay structurally distinct: a 0.002% deadband under Rule 14.10(d) pulls small premia to zero every eight hours, with a 2.00% maximum funding magnitude. Coinbase's perp-style futures keep hourly funding computed from price snapshots, per its Sep 18–19 filings. Nothing in the transcript points to a crypto-side rule change ending the differential.
The live pairs: ZEC (long KXZECPERP / short ZEC-20DEC30-CDE) ranks 1 of 16 at +45.3% gross annualized and +2.5% edge over 30 days; DOGE follows at +1.0%, then SOL (+0.7%, flipped legs — long Coinbase, short Kalshi), BTC (+0.5%) and LTC (+0.5%). All five clear their fee bars at the cap; none has a resolved day yet, so realized carry is unproven.
Variant perception: the structural read is consensus-consistent — the desk's edge is that the trade is empty of crowd (X search on the Kalshi/Coinbase funding arb returned zero posts) and that both venues are extending perps to single stocks and ETFs, which would replicate this divergence on equities. Watch CFTC action on Coinbase's stock-perp docket (approval pending since Sep 18) and any amendment touching Kalshi Rule 14.10 crypto funding. Honest caveat: one search returned junk; no direct print of current realized funding rates is in evidence.
Sources
- Kalshi · 4 open Kalshi market(s) — KXBTCMAX100-26-OCT yes 14/15¢ · KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC yes 37/38¢ · KXBTCMAX100-26-SEP yes 1/2¢ · true as of Sep 25, 5:52 PM UTC · 23d ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Bitcoin Runs to $81,000 and NEAR Adds 32% | The Defiant · true as of Sep 18, 9:02 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Coinbase To Launch US Nano Bitcoin Perpetual-Style Futures In July · true as of Jun 26, 2025, 4:35 PM UTC · 1y ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Coinbase Targets $24/5 Stock Perps in First U.S. Push for Single-Stock Crypto Futures · true as of Sep 19, 12:07 PM UTC · 29d ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Federal Register :: Self-Regulatory Organizations; KalshiEX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to Listing Standards for Security Futures Products · true as of Sep 23, 12:00 AM UTC · 26d ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · How Bitcoin Price Contracts Work On Kalshi | OddsShopper · true as of Aug 28, 12:00 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Prediction Market Statistics & Trends in 2026 · true as of Sep 7, 12:00 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Fake World Assets - Sierra Leone Leonesi Değer Hesaplama · true as of Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC · 28d ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
- Web · Self-Regulatory Organizations; KalshiEX LLC; Notice ... · true as of Sep 23, 12:00 AM UTC · 26d ago · fetched Sep 25, 5:52 PM
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