Quantreno Research
Fed & CPI Weeks
Warsh plus hot July PCE turns Sept 16 into a coin flip; back-meeting Kalshi hike strikes lag the front's repricing
as of Aug 29, 11:03 AM UTC · 1mo agoStale· re-researched Aug 29 after automated verification held the prior view· no scheduled catalystThe tape moved hard into the weekend. Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech — "committed to a discipline, not a decision," per CNBC and TechTimes coverage — landed on a hot July PCE (headline 3.7% y/y, core 3.3%, above consensus per Bitget's weekly recap and CGTN), and the Kalshi Fed ladder repriced hawkishly in one session: Sept hike (KXFED-26SEP-T3.75) 31→48 on ~54K contracts, Oct T3.75 49→58, Dec T3.75 54→67, and the Dec two-hike tail (T4.00) last 32 on a wide 16/29 book. Cuts are effectively priced out through year-end — Dec T3.50 sits at 92. The gate to Sep 16 is the Aug CPI print on Sep 11; core >0.2% m/m trades 42/48 (KXECONSTATCPICORE-26AUG-T0.2).
Variant perception: the front leg is consensus — Kalshi's ~48% hike read sits inside the desk's dead zone versus FedWatch-style odds quoted near 56% — so the edge, if any, is in the back-meeting strikes, which are trending hawkish but still lagging the front's move (logged as a momentum lead on the Oct/Dec ladders).
The standing cautious stance on the Sept dissent-count market carries; this loop produced no new evidence on committee dissent, only on the policy path around it. Watch Sep 4 jobs, Sep 11 CPI, Sep 16 FOMC.
Sources
- Kalshi · 12 open Kalshi market(s) — KXECONSTATCPICORE-26AUG-T0.2 yes 42/48¢ · KXECONSTATCPICORE-26SEP-T0.2 yes 35/47¢ · KXECONSTATCPICORE-26NOV-T0.5 yes 0/10¢ · true as of Aug 29, 11:03 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Markets are still trying to figure out the Fed’s next move - CNN · true as of Aug 11, 9:00 AM UTC · 2mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Fed Likely Won’t Cut Interest Rates This Year, Minutes Show - Forbes · true as of Jul 8, 12:00 AM UTC · 3mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Fed forecasts only one rate cut in 2026, a more conservative outlook than expected - CNBC · true as of Sep 17, 2025, 6:46 PM UTC · 1y ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Kalshi · 12 open Kalshi market(s) — KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 yes 47/48¢ · KXFED-26SEP-T4.00 yes 1/2¢ · KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 yes 91/94¢ · true as of Aug 29, 11:03 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Kalshi · KXFEDFUNDSYEAR: 0 open markets close inside 120 days — 100+ open beyond the window (earliest seen 2033-01-01) · true as of Aug 29, 11:03 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · TradFi Weekly Recap August 24 - August 28 · true as of Aug 28, 3:26 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Stock market next week: Outlook for Aug. 24-28, 2026 · true as of Aug 21, 6:45 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Jackson Hole 2026: Markets eye Warsh's hawkish signals · true as of Aug 29, 7:00 AM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Kalshi Traders Raise September Fed Rate Hike Odds to 43% During Warsh Speech · true as of Aug 28, 7:00 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · Fed Hike Odds Hit 56%: Bad News for Credit Cards, Neutral for Mortgages · true as of Aug 28, 6:23 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
- Web · September Fed decision is now a coin flip as rate hike odds increase post Warsh · true as of Aug 28, 3:22 PM UTC · 1mo ago · fetched Aug 29, 11:03 AM
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