Fed & CPI Weeks

What's moving: June CPI (Jul 14) came in shockingly cool — headline -0.4% m/m, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020, taking y/y to 3.5% vs 3.8% expected (from 4.2% in May); core was flat m/m, 2.6% y/y vs 2.9% consensus (Reuters, IBD). Crypto and risk ripped on the print (per X flow). Pre-print, 2026 hike odds sat near 55–60% (Kalshi ~50% per CNBC Jul 9, Crypto Briefing showed 59.5% Jul 13); the print knocked those back.

Catalysts: July 29 FOMC under Chair Warsh; July PPI; oil/Strait headlines. Warsh testified Jul 14 refusing to call improvement "mission accomplished" and flagged tighter policy if inflation re-firms (Axios, CNN); Williams offered a more concrete policy benchmark.

Variant perception: the desk thinks the dovish repricing overreads one print — the disinflation was energy-led and core was flattered by a one-off 2.0% vehicle-price drop, while the Strait of Hormuz reportedly closed again after IRGC strikes, reversing the energy driver into July data, with tariff/fertilizer/food pipeline pressure building (Reuters, WaPo). A Sept–Dec hike is more alive than post-CPI pricing implies; July 29 is a hold.

Markets in scope: KXRATEHIKE and KXEFFR on Kalshi. Evidence is thin here: KXEFFR Oct strikes are wide/illiquid (3.00% strike 94/99, others no-bid), and a post-CPI KXRATEHIKE re-quote wasn't obtained before budget spent — confirm live pricing before acting on the repricing thesis.