GPU Compute Prices

What's moving: the H100 board jumped over 24h. Kalshi's Sep 04 weekly >$2.75 went 56→~75¢ (last 78¢), >$3.00 went 25→~44¢, and the August monthly-average >$2.75 ran 54→~71¢ on roughly 8K contracts. No single overnight catalyst surfaced in the search thread — an X sweep came back empty — but the move coincides with NVDA earnings-week demand confirmation, and the fundamentals argue trend, not noise: SemiAnalysis has 1-yr H100 contracts up ~40% off the Oct-2025 trough, Galaxy cites the May spot spike at +101% off trough, and mid-August neocloud spot ran ~$2.15–2.46 and climbing (marktechpost survey).

Variant perception: the tape has already caught up at Sep 04 — the desk's edge is not in chasing that strike but at the next weekly listing (~Sep 11), where fresh strikes will price the same trend from scratch. The nearer, checkable anomaly is the August monthly >$2.75 at ~71¢: with two days left, settlement is near-arithmetic off public daily prints, so the MTD average vs $2.75 is verifiable before it settles.

Structure keeps institutionalizing: CME launches Silicon Data H100 and B200 rental-index futures Oct 5 (Startup Fortune), pending regulatory review. Live markets in scope: KXH100WS (weeklies), KXH100MS/KXH100MON (monthlies/dailies), KXB200MS — the Oct B200 >$5.00 sits at ~91/94¢.