Old vs New Energy

What's moving. WTI ran from ~$72 (Jul 10) to ~$79.38 (Jul 15), a ~5–6% weekly gain per CNBC and OilPrice, driven by Iranian strikes on US military assets and Ukrainian drone attacks that cut Russian crude runs to the lowest since 2005 — a diesel-crack tailwind for majors and refining-linked service names (XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, OXY). Kalshi prices Iranian July output at only ~2.0–2.2M bpd (77¢ on ≥2.0M, 58¢ on ≥2.2M), confirming the supply-risk story is live. The clean side (FSLR, ENPH, RUN) shows no comparable US catalyst — searches surfaced only an Indian module maker and UK generation records; X sweeps came back empty.

Caveat on evidence. Equity snapshots failed both attempts (Alpaca 401s), so the single-name tape is reconstructed from news and Kalshi — the crude signal is solid, the equity-level read is thinner. Near-dated Kalshi WTI series carried no open markets.

Variant perception. The desk sees the oil-side momentum as a fragile supply-risk premium the sell-side is already fading: JPMorgan cut XOM's target to $158 from $173 and Mizuho trimmed to $170 even as crude rallied, and OilPrice argues the next durable rally needs China demand, not Mideast risk. Long-old/short-new is right today; the driver is not durable.

Watch. Hormuz/Iran de-escalation headlines, China import data, Kalshi Iran-production repricing.