Political Events

What's moving: KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01 (US government shut down on Oct 1?) last traded 10¢ YES, bid/ask 8–10¢, up 2pp on ~30k contracts of 24h volume — the liveliest political market on the board right now.

State of play: The House passed a clean CR on July 21 (per USA Today), and the Senate amended the end date to Dec 11 and passed it 90–6 on Aug 8 (per CNN, CBS, and the Guardian). Both chambers' leaderships have said openly they want funding secured through the November midterms, per GovExec. All that remains is House concurrence when it returns in September — a clean, current-levels stopgap with Democratic votes available.

Variant perception: the desk mildly fades YES — true residual lapse risk looks closer to ~5% than the 9–10% priced. The tails are real but narrow: this same Congress let DHS funding lapse in March 2026 (TSA workers missed paychecks), and X chatter shows Rep. Andy Harris and allies contesting the CR's hemp-restriction delay rider — the one identified House friction point. Neither tail plausibly forces a full Oct 1 lapse of a bill that cleared the Senate 90–6.

Watch: timing of the House concurrence vote (expected the week of Sep 8), hemp-rider escalation, and any veto noise. Evidence on the exact House floor schedule is thin — the vote date is the desk's estimate, not a published calendar entry.