Strait of Hormuz

What's moving: The Aug 24–30 KXHORMUZWEEKLY ladder tightened around a low-30s outcome — T25 at 86¢, T30 at 42¢ (down 10pp), T35 at 16¢ — while KXHORMUZMAX prices Aug 27 as the likely peak day (51 bid). The regime is post-war collapse: roughly 138 transit calls/day pre-conflict versus ~4–16/day in late August (discoveryalert, UANI), with IMF PortWatch as the settlement key.

Catalysts: Iran authorized Iraqi tankers to transit on Aug 23 (Egypt Oil & Gas, Iraqi News), and CBS reports Iran and Oman edging toward a temporary reopening plan — Tehran conditioning it on the U.S. lifting its blockade. Cutting against that, two fresh incidents: a ship struck Aug 24 (UKMTO warning 120-26, per TWZ) and a tanker hit by a projectile off Oman Aug 25 (Spectrum News).

Variant perception: On this week's bracket the desk has no edge — without a verified running daily count, the market's ~28–31 center is consensus and we say so. The edge sits in the barely-formed Sep 6 ladder: T35 is quoted 19/50, wide and thin, and reopening headlines (Iran–Oman terms, Iraqi convoy transits) will reprice it before PortWatch prints a single day of next week's data. A partial, selective reopening is enough to clear 35 calls over seven days from a 4–16/day base. Watch for further attacks — the Aug 25 strike shows incident risk cuts both ways.