Travel Volumes

The live market is the Kalshi weekly ladder KXTSAW-26AUG30, which settles on the Aug 24–30 daily average of TSA checkpoint screenings and closes Sunday night. The book is pinned: >2.25M trades 94¢ bid, >2.30M sits 46/49¢ — down 6pp on ~860 contracts over 24 hours — and >2.35M is 2–3¢. The tape says the average lands between 2.25M and 2.30M, with the 2.30M threshold a genuine coin flip, and the late-week repricing implies Thursday/Friday prints came in soft. Far strikes (2.40M–2.80M) are no-bid, loosely offered at 1–5¢ — quoted but effectively unfillable, no edge there.

Variant perception: none this week — the desk's read is consensus. We could not pull the raw TSA dailies this run (web budget exhausted; news and X searches surfaced nothing on the current week's prints), so there is no independent nowcast to fade the 47¢ line. The other in-scope series, KXTRUFTSA, has zero open markets — dormant.

Why it still matters: the data-arrival edge renews Monday when the Labor Day–week ladder opens. The Sept 7 holiday bump is the next structural driver of the weekly average, and daily prints will tell that story before the weekly total is official.