Every trading morning before the open: what moved since the prior close, what’s due this week on your clock, and the researcher’s current view on every covered theme — movers first. The actual output, not a sample.
Open the app to sit at the same desk with your own book beside it — and try an idea on paper: stocks on Alpaca, events on Kalshi — simulated money, zero dollars at risk; live trading opens at launch.
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG30-T2587¢ (+13¢)Strait of Hormuz
The event-side mover of the night: the entire Hormuz transit-count ladder repriced sharply higher, with the >25 strike jumping the most on real volume and adjacent strikes (>20, >30, >35) moving in lockstep. The market is signaling meaningfully freer tanker flow through the chokepoint this week — a directional easing signal for crude supply-risk premium into the open.
KXB200WS-26AUG28-6.00040¢ (-18¢)GPU Compute Prices
Into today's 4 PM ET fix, the market slashed the odds that spot B200 compute prints above $6, even as the $5.50 strike firmed near certainty and September $5 strikes ticked up. Read: GPU rental pricing is seen holding a solid floor but the top-end squeeze is fading — a nuance worth flagging the morning after the NVDA-led chip rally.
KXTROPSTORM-26DEC01-T1041¢ (-7¢)Hurricane Season
Odds of more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes this season drifted lower overnight, a quiet-tape repricing toward a milder season. Thin volume, so treat it loosely — but directionally it eases the tail risk the desk watches for insurers, refiners, and Gulf Coast energy assets.
KXGEMINIAPP-26SEP07-T28047¢ (+7¢)AI Model Milestones
The market nudged the higher Gemini August download strike toward a coin flip, with the lower strike also firming. The book is very thin and wide, so the print deserves a discount — but the drift is consistently toward stronger app adoption, a datapoint for the AI consumer-traction narrative.
KXU3-26AUG-T4.151¢ (+1¢)Jobs & Growth Weeks
With the August jobs report a week out, the >4.1% unemployment strike sits at a near coin flip on active volume, and the ladder above it firmed slightly. The labor-market question is genuinely open — worth watching as the single biggest input to Fed-path pricing into next Friday.
TSA weekly ladder pins Aug 24–30 average in the 2.25–2.30M band; 2.30M line a coin flip after late-week fade
Read the briefas of Sat 11:03 AM UTC · 5d agoStale· re-researched Sat after automated verification held the prior view· next: August jobs report — Sep 4 (estimated)Warsh plus hot July PCE turns Sept 16 into a coin flip; back-meeting Kalshi hike strikes lag the front's repricing
Read the briefClaude Opus 5 holds the LMArena top spot into Aug 31; Gemini 3.5 Pro's delays make a late upset unlikely.